كيف ترى «هيرميس» اقتصاد مصر في 2018 - منتدى المراجع المصرى/المحاسب القانونى محمد صفوت
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افتراضي كيف ترى «هيرميس» اقتصاد مصر في 2018

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هيرميس قالت شركة المجموعة المالية هيرميس- أكبر بنوك الاستثمار في منطقة الشرق الأوسط وإفريقيا- إن عام 2018 سيكون بمثابة عام الانفراجة الاقتصادية لمصر وجني ثمار برنامج الإصلاح الذي تنفذه الحكومة المصرية، والذي سينعكس ايجابيا على مؤشرات الاقتصاد وعلى رأسها معدلات التضخم وتقلص العجز في الميزان التجاري وتحسن قيمة الجنيه مقابل الدولار وتحسن كبير في معدلات السياحة والنشاط الصناعي.
وتوقعت هيرميس- في تقريرها السنوي عن التوقعات لعام 2018- أن يحقق الاقتصاد المصري نموا بنسبة 8ر4 في المائة (وهو معدل أعلى من توقعات صندوق النقد والبنك الدوليين) مقارنة مع 8ر3 في المائة في 2017، كما توقعت تراجع معدلات التضخم إلى 9ر20 في المائة بنهاية العام المالي الحالي 2017- 2018 وإلى 5ر10 في المائة بنهاية العام المالي التالي 2018- 2019.
وذكرت أن الناتج المحلي الإجمالي (مقوما بالدولار) يستهدف مستوى 5ر265 مليار دولار بنهاية العام المالي الحالي 2017 -2018 مقارنة مع 6ر247 مليار دولار في العام المالي الماضي، فيما توقعت ان يصل إلى 8ر307 مليار دولار في نهاية العام المالي 2018 -2019، وأن يرتفع متوسط إيرادات القطاع السياحي خلال العام 2018-2019 إلى 4ر8 مليار دولار بفضل عودة السياحة الروسية التي ستزيد إيرادات السياحة بنحو 2 إلى 5ر2 مليار دولار .
ورأت هيرميس أن معدلات الفائدة مرشحة للانخفاض التدريجي خلال عام 2018 ما بين 300 إلى 400 نقطة (3 إلى 4%) ما سيؤدي إلى انخفاض العائد على أذون الخزانة والتي بدأت بالفعل في الانخفاض منذ نهايات العام 2017، كما رأت أن قيمة الجنيه المصري سترتفع أمام الدولار خلال العام 2018 إلى نحو 17 جنيها للدولار.
وأشارت إلى أن ارتفاع إنتاج مصر من الغاز الطبيعي مع دخول حقول جديدة العمل سيمنح قوة للاقتصاد المصري اعتبارا من العام 2018، حيث بدأ بالفعل حقلي غرب الدلتا وظهر انتاجهما في 2017 ما سيسهم في وصول إنتاج مصر لاعلى مستوياتها من الغاز في 5 سنوات إلى 6 مليارات قدم مكعب في منتصف 2018 ومع وصول انتاج تلك الحقول إلى مستويات إنتاجية أعلى سيدعم ذلك بشكل كبير أداء الاقتصاد المصري بحلول 2019 حيث سيحقق بشكل شبه كامل الاكتفاء الذاتي احتياجات السوق المحلي من الغاز المسال والذي سيوفر بدوره ما بين 12 إلى 15% من عجز الحساب الجاري.
وأوضحت أن قطاع السياحة في مصر شهد تعافيا ملحوظا بعد تحرير سعر الصرف وقيام العديد من الدول الأوروبية بإلغاء تحذيرات السفر إلى مصر لترتفع معدلات السياحة الأجنبية إلى مصر بنسبة 53% في 2017 مقارنة بالعام الذي سبقه 2016، كما تضاعفت عائدات السياحة في الشهور التسعة الأولى من العام الماضي إلى 7 مليارات دولار وهى أعلى معدلات لها منذ 2014 لكنها تبقى اقل من معدلاتها في 2010 عندما بلغت 5ر12 مليار دولار.
وذكرت هيرميس في تقريرها أن الحكومة المصرية يبقى أمامها إجراء وحيد لاستكمال إجراءات إعادة هيكلة منظومة الدعم المنصوص عليها في برنامج الإصلاح الاقتصادي المتفق عليه مع صندوق النقد الدولي، مشيرة إلى أن المستهدف هو تقليل فاتورة الدعم بنحو 56% إلى ما يعادل 4 مليارات دولار ما يمثل 3ر1% من إجمالي الناتج المحلي الإجمالي.

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